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Course Title: Project Risk and Cost Analysis
Author: Michael S. Dobson, Deborah Singer Dobson
Provider: American Management Association
Price: $89.95
CEU Credits: 2
Level: Advanced
Field Of Study: N/A
Prerequisites: None
Purchase This Course

About This Course xiii

How to Take This Course xv

Introduction xvii

Pre-Test xix

Chapter 1: Introduction to Project Risk and Cost Analysis . . . 1
     Learning Objectives
     Fundamental Concepts of Risk and Risk Management
     Risk Defined
     The Value of a Risk
     Types of Risk
     Risk Management Defined
     Cost Analysis and Risk Management Planning
     Recap
     Review Questions

Chapter 2: Risk Identification . . . 17
     Learning Objectives
     Identifying Risks
     Risk Register
          Risk ID
          Description of Risk
          Category of Risk
          Where Found?
          Probability of Occurrence
          Nature and Degree of Impact
          Risk Rating
          Disposition
          Comments
     How to Identify Risks
     Systematic Risk Identification
          Documentation
          Brainstorming
          Diagramming Techniques
          Checklists
          Expert judgment
     Output from Risk Identification Process Recap
     Review Questions

Chapter 3: Qualitative Risk Analysis . . . 37
     Learning Objectives
     Introduction to Risk Analysis
          Qualitative Risk Analysis
          Quantitative Risk Analysis
     Qualitative Risk Analysis
          Start
          Impact
          Probability
          Urgency
          Ownership
          Solution
          Acceptability
     Risk Triage and Other Risk Analysis Processes
     Recap
     Review Questions

Chapter 4: Tools for Qualitative Risk Analysis . . . 51
     Learning Objectives
     Qualitative Risk Analysis Tools
     Assessing Probability and Impact
          Establishing Ranges
          Risk Thresholds
     Combining Probability and Impact
          Calculating Risk Scores with Non-Numerical Information
     Developing a Risk Ranking for a Project
     Updating the Risk Register and Developing a Risk Information Sheet
     Recap
     Review Questions

Chapter 5: Statistical Foundations of Quantitative Risk and Cost Analysis . . . 69
     Learning Objectives
     Quantitative Risk and Cost Analysis Fundamentals
          A Statistic
          The Law of Large Numbers
          Probability, Odds, and Throwing Dice
     Basic Rules of Probability
     Distribution
     Normal Distribution
          Measures of Central Tendency: Mean, Median, and Mode
          Normal and and Other Distributions
          Standard Deviation
     Other Types of Distributions
     Recap
     Review Questions

Chapter 6: Risk Cost Analysis . . . 91
     Learning Objectives
     Introduction to Cost Risk Analysis
     Classical Risk
     Risk Cost Analysis
          Insurance as a Model for Risk Cost Analysis
          Contingency Allowance and Contingency Reserve
     Pricing Insurance Risk
          Risk Premiums
          Insurance Risk with Low Variation
          Insurance Risk with High Variation
          Additional Factors in Risk Decisions
          Black Swan Events
          Developing a Final Risk Price
     Recap
     Review Questions

Chapter 7: Quantitative Cost Analysis Tools . . . 111
     Learning Objectives
     Quantitative Cost Analysis
     Cost Estimating Under Uncertainty
     Cost Risk Analysis Tools
          Cost-Benefit Analysis
          Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
          Decision Tree Analysis
          Sensitivity Analysis
     Recap
     Review Questions

Chapter 8: Quantitative Schedule Analysis Tools . . . 123
     Learning Objectives
     Sensitivity Analysis for Scheduling Issues
     Schedule Risk Analysis
     Schedule Development
     Network Diagramming and Critical Path Analysis
          Forward and Backward Pass
          Critical Path and Float
          Types of Schedule Risk
     Three-Point Estimating Techniques
          Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
          Monte Carlo Simulation
     Recap
     Review Questions

Chapter 9: Risk Response Planning . . . 143
     Learning Objectives
     Organizing for Risk Response Planning
     Residual and Secondary Risk
          Residual Risk
          Secondary Risk
     Multi-Stage Solutions
     Managing Threats
          Avoidance
          Transfer
          Mitigation
     Managing Opportunities
          Exploit
          Enhance
          Share
     Managing Acceptance
          Contingent Responses
          Acceptance
     Implementing Risk Response Strategies
     Recap
     Review Questions

Chapter 10: Risk Monitoring and Control . . . 159
     Learning Objectives
     Risk Management Processes in Project Execution, Monitoring and Control, and Closeout
     Risk Management Plans and Policies
          Risk Management Policy Development
          Philosophy, Approach, Scope
          Risk Management Methodology and Process
     Project Risk Monitoring and Control Systems
          Managing the Project Risk Environment
          Establishing Risk Metrics and Early Warning Indicators
          Earned Value Project Management
          Implementing and Monitoring Risk Responses
          Corrective Actions and Unplanned Responses
          Watching "Watch and Wait" Risks
     Change Management and Risk
          Planning for Changes
          Managing Unplanned Change
     Revisiting Risk Identification and Risk Analysis
          Closing Risks
     Risk Management and Project "Lessons Learned"
     Recap
     Review Questions

Answers to Exercises and Case Studies . . . 175

Bibliography and Recommended Reading . . . 201

Glossary . . . 205

Post-Test . . . 215

Index . . . 221




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